To Reach the World Cup Final: Odds for Russia 2018

With the World Cup fast approaching, everyone has their own idea as to who will win the tournament and the outright win is the busiest of all betting markets at an early ante post stage. One other long term bet that takes a little longer to trickle through from the bookies is the To Reach the Final option and it’s one where there may be some value to uncover.

Certain teams such as Germany and Brazil will be strong favourites here too but a side such as Argentina has been a good alternative over the years. The country has won the tournament twice and has been runner up on three further occasions so that’s five finals overall since the competition first began in 1930.

And, if we narrow that record down to the last forty years, we find that Argentina have reached the World Cup final in four of the last ten editions. That’s a record that could make the South Americans a decent tip to reach the final at Russia 2018 so let’s get straight on and consider the options.

The Favourites

Brazil and Germany are joint favourites to actually win this summer’s World Cup so it’s no surprise to see a similar picture in the separate To Reach The Final market. Here, both teams are at best odds of 5/2 to make the final two, with Brazil quoted at that figure by BetFred while for the Germans, you will need to go to Sky Bet for that best 5/2 price.

From there, France are on offer at a top price of 3/1 with Sky Bet again before we get to Spain and their best odds of 10/3 with Boylesports. In fifth place, we’ve already talked up Argentina and based on those stats we’ve given you, 2014’s beaten finalists look very tempting at a best of 4/1 with SportingBet and MarathonBet.

In fact, all of the top five make strong cases but we’ll restrict our search to take in just the last twenty years since the 1998 tournament. Japan finished as runners up in that 1998 tournament and went on to win it four years later but since then, the great South American side has failed to make it beyond the semi final.

Germany are the reigning champions as we know but like Brazil, they have only finished in the top two on two occasions since France 1998. In familiar European conditions however, they are highly fancied to go all the way and of the two joint favourites, the Germans seem the better bet.

France won on home soil in that memorable 1998 tournament and were runners up in 2006. We also shouldn’t forget that the country reached the final of Euro 2016 and they will travel to Russia with many members of that squad that performed well two years ago.

Finally in this section, we come to 2010 Champions Spain. That triumph in South Africa was the filling in a sandwich that saw them win three major tournaments in succession. However, in terms of World Cup finals, that 2010 win is their only appearance since France 1998.

Outside Options

There has been some interest in Portugal who are on offer in this market at best odds of 12/1 with 188Bet. The country’s best result at a World Cup saw them claim third place in England in 1966 but they have yet to reach a World Cup final.

Portugal are, however, reigning European Champions and the side proved they can win without the great Cristiano Ronaldo who was forced off early through injury in the final of Euro 2016.

Ahead of Portugal in the 2018 To Reach the World Cup Final betting are Belgium at best odds of 5/1 with 188Bet and England at 9/1 with SportingBet. We know that the Belgians have a strong squad and they are being talked up again as Dark Horses to win a major tournament but they were disappointing at Euro 2016 and based on that performance they should perhaps be avoided.

Backing England would, however, be seen as an even braver punt. They haven’t reached a World Cup final since winning it on home soil in 1966 and while this is a talented, emerging side, it’s surely too soon to expect them to add to that tally,

Also worth mentioning in this section are host nation Russia at a best of 18/1 with MarathonBet, Poland, who are fronted by the dangerous striker Robert Lewandowski and can be picked up at a top price of 25/1 with 188Bet, plus a talented Uruguayan unit who are rated highly by the bookies – coming in at relatively short best odds of 14/1 with SportingBet.

Those outsider options will retain their hopes but we think the battle is between the Top Five countries in this market. Since 1998, the only countries to have reached a World Cup Final other than Germany, Brazil, France, Spain and Argentina are Italy and the Netherlands but neither of those sides have qualified for Russia 2018.

Verdict

It’s tough to make a successful defence of the World Cup and the last team to record consecutive tournaments wins were Brazil, way back in 1958 and 1962. However, we have been convinced for some time that Germany will arrive in Russia with the strongest squad so far and in helpful conditions, they are well-equipped to turn that unfavourable trend around.

And, we only need Germany to reach the final for them to deliver a profit at 5/2 in this market. However, for a little more value we’re going to make Argentina our confirmed tip. They often go deep into the tournament even after a slow start and perhaps this could be the time when the great Lionel Messi really shines in a major competition.

Take the Germans for a smaller profit if you like but Argentina look like a good value option to us at those odds of 4/1.

Best Bet:

• Argentina to Reach the Final of the 2018 World Cup at 4/1 with SportingBet