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We may only be just over halfway through the year but we’ve already seen some outstanding sporting action from across the world. England’s footballers have been adding to the excitement at the 2018 World Cup and there’s plenty more to look forward to for the remainder of the year.
It will be some time before the BBC Sports Personality of the Year show comes along to recognise outstanding achievement but at this early stage, it can be wise to seek out some ante post value. Here’s how the SPOTY market is looking at the end of July.
Harry Kane
As England’s footballers were progressing through the group stages of the World Cup, Harry Kane was the key man and after scoring five goals in the opening three matches at Russia 2018, the striker was odds on across the board to win Sports Personality of the Year for 2018.
England made it to the semi finals and Harry Kane won the Golden Boot but despite that, the Spurs man has eased in the SPOTY markets to best odds of 6/5 with Betway. He had been as short as 8/11 while England were progressing through the knockouts but while the price has moved out, he’s still a clear favourite and most punters’ choice to win the BBC award.
The biggest change in the market sees 2018 Tour de France winner Geraint Thomas come from the list of rank outsiders to a top price of 3/1 with SportPesa. The Welshman became on the third British rider to win this prestige event and after such a huge achievement, it’s no surprise to see him drop so suddenly in the immediate aftermath of his great win.
The surge of interest in British cycling has seen Chris Hoy, Bradley Wiggins and Mark Cavendish win SPOTY in the last ten years so there’s enough of a precedent to suggest that Geraint Thomas can add to that list.
In contrast, fellow cyclist Chris Froome was favourite to win the Tour De France but has now moved out from 22/1 to 40/1 with William Hill to win Sports Personality of the Year. Two results from cycling’s biggest test have affected the markets but there are plenty of other options as we move through the field.
Behind Harry Kane and Geraint Thomas, there is a long gap to the remaining contenders and the third favourite is currently Anthony Joshua who is available at 14/1 with Unibet and 888Sport. AJ was the clear favourite in 2017 and it was therefore something of a surprise when the boxer lost out to Mo Farah.
There was a sense of injustice for some in that result and Joshua will get support once again but 2018 hasn’t been such a stellar year for him and that will naturally count against AJ when the voting is made.
Next we have Lewis Hamilton at a best of 16/1 with MarathonBet and 10Bet and we think that this could be one to watch. Motorsport has a big following and there has been a series of Formula One SPOTY winners, dating all the way back to Stirling Moss in 1961.
In fact, Lewis Hamilton has won the Sports Personality of the Year award in 2014 and he’s been a runner up twice. To win it again in 2018 it’s likely that he will have to retain his F1 Driver’s title but that looks a strong probability and it could pay to get on at 16/1 before that figure drops.
Lizzy Yarnold
2018 was also a Winter Olympics year and the odds setters have moved to recognise some of Britain’s own olympians. Lizzy Yarnold is the most likely contender in this bracket at 25/1 with Unibet and Ladbrokes while further down, there are options for curling’s Eve Muirhead at 50/1 with Unibet and 888Sport.
While they are all worthy champions, it wasn’t a particularly brilliant Winter Olympics for Great Britain so it’s hard to see any of these names coming through to take the overall Sports Personality of the Year trophy.
It’s rare to see a real shock and although few punters expected Mo Farah to come through and take last year’s crown, it wasn’t from a particularly distant price. Farah is available again for 2018, this time as a genuine long shot at odds of 80/1 with 10Bet and SportPesa but as there have been no major athletics championships this year, a successful defence seems unlikely.
Elsewhere, it could be worth looking at other members of England’s World Cup squad for Russia 2018, particularly Jordan Pickford who is quoted at 20/1 with 10Bet and 188Bet. England’s goalkeeper is as short as 12/1 in other places and as the real hero of that shootout against Colombia, we think that 20/1 is very interesting indeed.
Other members of that squad in the running for Sports Personality of the Year include Dele Alli at 66/1 with William Hill, Harry Maguire at 40/1 with MarathonBet, plus Jamie Vardy who is out at 100/1 with 888Sport.
As we shorten slightly, how about Mark Williams who finished a brilliant season on the snooker table with a World Championship win at the crucible? Within his own sport, the Welshman’s achievements, at a relatively late stage of his career, have been remarkable and there will be some interest at a top price of 50/1 with 10Bet and SportPesa.
Lewis Hamilton
We’re only just over halfway through 2018 so it is very early in terms of picking a winner for Sports Personality of the Year but clearly there is going to be a lot of interest in England’s footballers, even though they didn’t quite go as far at Russia 2018 as they would have liked.
We should also remember that Harry Kane has achieved much for his domestic club Spurs and has enjoyed another prolific season for the North London outfit. Much can happen between now and December but World Cup fever seems to have gripped a nation and it’s unlikely that it will be forgotten when it’s time to vote.
At this point, odds of 6/5 on Harry Kane for BBC Sports Personality of the Year look a little too short but we remain interested in that 16/1 on Lewis Hamilton. He’s a former winner of this award and if he takes out the F1 Drivers’ Championship again in 2018, he may well set some records along the way.
That’s the sort of performance that will resonate with the British public but is it enough to win SPOTY? We’re not entirely sure so we’ll play a little safer here. Not all bookies have Each Way terms at this point but MarathonBet give you this option and at 16/1, Lewis Hamilton looks a very good E/W punt.
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