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Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari
Sebastian Vettel’s win in the Belgian Grand Prix at the end of August keeps alive the German’s hopes of catching Lewis Hamilton in the race for the 2018 Drivers’ Championship. This week, we make the short trip to Italy as we head to the crucial part of the season.
Can Vettel continue to put pressure on the defending champion and championship leader or will Hamilton take the opportunity to pull clear once again?
It’s tight once again at the top of the market but where Vettel and Hamilton have often carried the same win price for recent Grand Prix, the Ferrari man is clear this time. Vettel is odds on for the win in Italy in many places while the best industry odds currently stand at Even Money at Ladbrokes and Betway.
Hamilton follows at a top price of 19/10 with 10Bet and SportPesa and then we have our customary gap to the chasing pack. It hasn’t all been about two drivers this season so we shouldn’t necessarily rule out third favourite Kimi Raikkonen at 6/1 with Boylesports.
Behind the top three, Valtteri Bottas can be backed at best odds of 10/1 with MarathonBet and SportingBet while Max Verstappen follows at 22/1 with William Hill. Daniel Ricciardo and his Red Bull complete the ‘Big Six’ at 66/1 with SportingBet and then we get to the ‘also rans’.
With Esteban Ocon and Sergio Perez leading a very distant chasing pack at a top price of 1000/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral, we’ll move swiftly on and consider some alternative bets before coming back to make our overall verdict.
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes
The betting for the Drivers’ Championship is looking particularly tight after Sebastian Vettel came home in Belgium to narrow the gap between himself and Lewis Hamilton to 17 points. Hamilton remains favourite and can be picked up at best odds of 5/6 with Coral and BetFred and while Vettel is also odds on in places, the German is on offer at Even Money with William Hill and Betway.
It’s very much a ‘two-horse’ race here and that’s underlined by the odds for the third favourite Kimi Raikkonen who is listed at 250/1 with Coral and 188Bet.
Moving on to the Constructors’ Championship and while Ferrari won in Belgium last time out, the Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton came in second with teammate Valtteri Bottas in fourth. The second Ferrari of Kimi Raikkonen was forced to retire so this is battle is looking much clearer with the German manufacturer 15 points clear.
That may seem like a narrow gap but Mercedes are some way ahead in the betting at best odds of 8/13 with Coral while Ferrari follow at a top price of 6/4 with William Hill and BetFred.
While Vettel and Ferrari have kept both of these markets alive, we’ve been behind the favourites for some time and are not about to change our minds so, if you have yet to back Hamilton and Mercedes, we would suggest getting on now before those prices start to really slip.
Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes
In Italy last year, Lewis Hamilton started the race on pole while Valtteri Bottas recorded the fastest lap. Hamilton and Vettel have largely dominated the pole position betting in 2018 with the English driver starting at the front of the grid in four of the last six races.
Despite that statistic, Vettel is ahead in the pole position market for Italy at best odds of 9/10 with SportingBet while Hamilton follows on at a top price of 23/10 with 10Bet.
Kimi Raikkonen also heads this chasing pack at a best of 8/1 with William Hill, followed by Valtteri Bottas at a top price of 10/1 with SportingBet and Max Verstappen at distant best odds of 28/1 with Coral.
The Hamilton / Vettel dominance hasn’t extended to Fastest Lap which has been shared around to a much greater degree. Bottas won this bet in Belgium at the weekend and this is the side bet that tends to hold the better value.
For Italy this weekend, Sebastian Vettel is our favourite at best odds of 10/3 with William Hill while both Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen can be found at the same top price of 4/1 with MarathonBet and Betway.
Other options here include Valtteri Bottas at 5/1 with Coral and Daniel Ricciardo at 11/2 with William Hill while Max Verstappen has two fastest laps to his name this season and will interest some at his best odds of 7/1 with Ladbrokes.
That completes all of our usual, preferred bets so let’s see if we can pick some winners.
Monza, Italy
We’ve mentioned that it’s not all been about Hamilton and Vettel this year and there have been wins for Ricciardo and Verstappen but in recent weeks, the top two have started to dominate. The pair have won six of the last seven races and as we get to the ‘business end’ of the season, we’re not looking outside of them in terms of picking a winner for Italy.
Looking back to last year’s Italian Grand Prix, Hamilton won as Vettel came in third and the two men were split on the podium by second placed Valtteri Bottas. Hamilton started the race on pole while Daniel Ricciardo recorded the fastest lap in the Red Bull.
It’s been a battling season for once and we think that the ‘see-saw’ results will continue this week with Lewis Hamilton extending his overall points advantage. The Drivers’ Championship leader is our defending champion and he clearly likes it here with four Italian GP wins – one short of Michael Schumacher’s all-time record.
Hamilton for the win is the tip at a decent 19/10 while the exciting, if inconsistent Verstappen, looks good value at 7/1 for the fastest lap.
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